Rainy Days Ahead for the Palisades

By JENNIKA INGRAM | Reporter 

With rain falling over the weekend and into the early half of this week, wet weather remains on the forecast for Pacific Palisades.

“Since this stormy pattern began, there’s been another 4.5 inches altogether,” Certified Consulting Meteorologist Jay Rosenthal shared.

With St. Patrick’s Day week starting off with rain, more rain is expected to fall heading into next weekend, which looks like it could be more serious, Rosenthal shared.

“For the period March 22 to March 25, we may have a couple of storm events,” Rosenthal told the Palisadian-Post. “Sometimes with these atmospheric rivers, the focus might be just south of us toward San Diego or Baja or north of us toward Santa Barbara or Monterey, and there’s no way to predict with any skill where those atmospheric rivers strike the coast.”

The yearly total of rainfall between October 1, 2019, and September 30 is 9.7 inches downtown so far, with the calendar based on the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works’ official rain year, or water year as it’s sometimes referred to.

It’s because “mother nature doesn’t look at the calendar,” Rosenthal explained, and LA gets its rain during the winter months.

Others monitor the rain year from July 1, 2019, to the end of June 30, 2020, and based on that calendar, the year total is up to 12 inches, according to Palisadian weather authority Craig Weston.

“The average rainfall per year in Los Angeles is 14.7 inches, so we are making a nice late season effort to reach that level,” he explained to the Post. “The forecast calls for the possibility of more rainfall next week.”

Last year, the average rain total in Los Angeles estimated in March was above normal. All models are approximations, based on the available data to feed them.

“Storms tend to come from the west, so we don’t have a lot of data out there, except satellites,” Rosenthal explained.

The best estimates are based on the models that are currently projecting and they do fluctuate, Rosenthal added.

“Models are only approximations and very sensitive to the little bit of data that gets plugged in,” Rosenthal explained. “The model output varies significantly with each model run on the computer, but it’s the best we have.”

Models currently project a wet beginning of April in the Palisades.

“Weather-wise, typically April is a breezy windy month, who knows this year,” Rosenthal added of next month’s predictions. “We have had Aprils [in the past] with significant rainfall.”